Can Opinion Polls be Trusted?

Can Opinion Polls be Trusted? Opinion poll is a type of survey or inquiry designed to measure the publics views regarding a topic or series of topics (Nielsen, 2007). The First poll was initiated in 1824 and straw polling was the first method used. (Hillygus, 2011) There are different types of opinion polling, few of them are Straw polls, Benchmark polls, Bushfire polls, Tracking polls, Entrance polls, Exit polls and Push polls. These polls are used as strategies to predict the voting of a campaign for a presidential election or how people feel about an issue in the country or issues of the globe (Davison, 2016). Straw poll in simple terms is an informal opinion survey. Benchmark poll is conducted at the very beginning of a campaign before the voters decision, it is done to estimate how well the candidate is doing at the beginning of a campaign. Tracking poll is a method where the opinions are taken with short intervals and the average is taken of the polls. Bushfire poll is taken in-between benchmark poll and tracking polls. The number of bushfire polls depend on the how competitive a side is and how much money is spent on that campaign. Entrance poll and exit polls are taken the day of the election. The opinion taken before the person give th eir vote is entrance poll and the opinion taken after the vote is exit poll. Push poll is a way of influencing a person by giving false information for an issue. It is done by showing that a poll is being conducted. Large number of people are contacted and no effort is made to collect data. Push poll is generally viewed as negative method of polling and is banned in the United States. (Boundless 2016). For this report the journals, newspaper articles and research papers were collected via internet. Data have been gathered from journals, research papers, new paper articles and websites which relates to this topic. To ensure that the information collected is accurate for a journal and research papers, make sure they are taken from a reputed web page, where they are published , is it from a university press or by a professional society. Research about the author, see if the author is from a university or another institute and if the journal is cited with other sources it can give further credibility. Data from new paper articles and websites are tricky because there can be so many scams in the web, therefore when using their information, you need to research if there is an author or a publisher, the date the article was released, is it from a reputed website which has an ending of .edu, .gov, or an article written by a university. Finding other source that can cross check the validity of the information makes it more reliable. Most of the data collected are quantitative data. The writers prove their information by providing statistical evidence. The reason for this is opinion polls mainly involves numbers to estimate their results. Opinion polls helps to know the populations view point towards an issue without having conduct campaigns or elections. Furthermore, Opinion Polls have played an important role in predicting elections. One of them is the election of 2010 in United Kingdom. 10 poll results were shown and 9 of them all showed the same scenario, representing that Conservatives party were clearly in the lead.(Nardelli, 2015) However, In the recent years some of the polls have not being able to accomplish their goals. One of them is the UK election 2015 (Cole, 2015) and the other The EU referendum where the votes of United Kingdom leaving European union was 48% while United Kingdom staying was 52% (Edwards, 2016) (Barnes, 2016). Opinion polls have not only failed United Kingdom but also the United States. The polls of Presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Polls from Yougov and Fox News have stated that Hillary Clinton was a 3-4% in lead of Donald Trump. (Skibba, 2016) The reason for the unsuccessful polls can be explained by how the data is collected and other factors that affect the result. Opinion polls are collected by conducting surveys. The common ways are telephone calls, face to face interviews or mail (Roper Center. (2015). The surveys are conducted in random samples which would help to make an prediction and understanding of the opinion of the wide population as a representative. Poll groups mostly use a sample size of thousand .The result survey that consist the sample of thousand or twenty thousand should be similar if the sample is representative.(Macreadie, 2011). The samples taken will have a margin of error. For sample size of thousand it would be +/- 3% and for two thousand its +/-2%. The smaller the sample, less accurate and a greater margin error. (Wells, 2011). Although lately poll groups seemed to have difficulties in performing surveys accurately. Specially telephone polls, which the most common and cost effective method. The reason behind this is the number of people using landlines has decrease greatly with the increase in technology which has led to using mobile phones. In 2013, 41% of US houses had mobile phones than cell phones. This was an issue to the polling groups because 1991 Telephone Consumer protection Act means that autodialling cell phones is against the law. Therefore to conduct mobile phone surveys, they have to manually dial the numbers, which makes the process expensive and time consuming. (Chalabi, 2016). Furthermore, Pew Research have estimated that the response rates in telephone survey in 1997 was 36% and have decreased greatly to 9% in 2012 (Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2017). Figure 1 (URL 1)   Ã‚   This is not the only aspect that makes the polls less reliable, the increasing in population from years makes also issue because the percentage of the total population completing a survey will decrease. Another problem is the last-minute change in decisions of the voters, this was a great impact on the UK Elections 2015. In February 19 % of the voters had not decides their bid and about 30 % of the voters announced that they might be persuaded to change their mind. (Healy, 2017) In addition most voters that was interviewed in the random samples could have been supporters of one political party, therefore the polls of one party could have shown to be greater. As mentioned above opinion polls have played an important role in predicting elections, however with the results of the recent elections have failed to trust it. The decrease of the respond rates, difficulty of conducting telephone surveys with mobile phones being used and the increase in population, are issue that poll groups face. Furthermore, these issues keep increasing which makes the polls less reliable. References Boundless (2016). Boundless Political Science.[online] Available at: https://www.boundless.com/political-science/textbooks/boundless-political-science-textbook/public-opinion-6/measuring-public-opinion-46/types-of-polls-269-1480/ [Accessed 11 January 2017] Chalabi, M. (2016). Dont trust the polls: the systemic issues that make voter surveys unreliable. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/datablog/2016/jan/27/dont-trust-the-polls-the-systemic-issues-that-make-voter-surveys-unreliable [Accessed 17 Jan. 2017]. Cole, N. (2015). Why Did The Opinion Polls Get It So Wrong in 2015? | Conversion Uplift. [online] Conversion-uplift.co.uk. Available at: http://www.conversion-uplift.co.uk/limitations-of-pre-election-opinion-polls/ [Accessed 17 Jan. 2017]. Davison, W. (2016). public opinion Political polls. [online] Encyclopedia Britannica. Available at: https://www.britannica.com/topic/public-opinion/Political-polls#toc258770 [Accessed 14 Jan. 2017]. Edwards, J. (2016). Pollsters now know why they were wrong about Brexit. [online] Business Insider. Available at: http://uk.businessinsider.com/pollsters-know-why-they-were-wrong-about-brexit-2016-7 [Accessed 17 Jan. 2017]. Hillygus, D. (2011). The Evolution of Election Polling in the United States. Public Opinion Quarterly, 75(5), pp.962-981. Healy, D. (2017). The 2015 UK Elections: Why 100% of the Polls Were Wrong. [online] Ftijournal.com. Available at: http://www.ftijournal.com/article/the-2015-uk-elections-why-100-of-the-polls-were-wrong [Accessed 17 Jan. 2017]. Macreadie, R. (2011). Public Opinion Polls. 1st ed. [ebook] Research Gate. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/270453761 [Accessed 17 Jan. 2017]. Mail Online. (2016). Polling failures changed outcome of 2015 general election. [online] Available at: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3405985/Opinion-polls-failure-2015-election-unrepresentative-samples.html [Accessed 17 Jan. 2017]. Nardelli, A. (2015). Election 2015: can we trust the polls?. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/datablog/2015/mar/30/election-2015-can-we-trust-polling [Accessed 17 Jan. 2017]. Oxford Dictionaries | English. (2017). opinion poll definition of opinion poll in English | Oxford Dictionaries. [online] Available at: https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/opinion_poll [Accessed 13 Jan. 2017]. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. (2017). Assessing the Representativeness of Public Opinion Surveys. [online] Available at: http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/ [Accessed 17 Jan. 2017]. Roper Center. (2015). Polling Fundamentals Sampling Roper Center. [online] Available at: https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/support/polling-fundamentals-sampling/ [Accessed 15 Jan. 2017]. Skibba, R. (2016). Pollsters struggle to explain failures of US presidential forecasts. [online] Nature. Available at: http://www.nature.com/news/pollsters-struggle-to-explain-failures-of-us-presidential-forecasts-1.20968# [Accessed 13 Jan. 2017]. Trochim, W. (2006). Types of Surveys. [online] Socialresearchmethods.net. Available at: http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/survtype.php [Accessed 15 Jan. 2017]. Wells, A. (2011). YouGov | Understanding margin of error. [online] YouGov: What the world thinks. Available at: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2011/11/21/understanding-margin-error/ [Accessed 15 Jan. 2017]. Hillygus, D. (2011). The Evolution of Election Polling in the United States. Public Opinion Quarterly, 75(5), pp.962-965. URL1: http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public- opinion-surveys/5-15-12-1/ [Accessed January 14 2017] Dyson Company Analysis: Industry and Culture Dyson Company Analysis: Industry and Culture Dyson, a name that has become synonymous with vacuum cleaners, is a brand that demonstrates how apt management and marketing techniques can transform a brilliant engineering idea into a bright success. Today, Dyson machines enjoy the privilege of being placed in places like Londons Victoria and Albert Museum, Museum of Modern Art (New York), Design Museum (Zurich), the Powerhouse Museum (Sydney) and the Georges  Pompidou Centre (Paris).  Continuous innovation at Dyson has made wonders possible in durable appliances industry and won many accolades for the founder and leader, James Dyson and his team including the Japan Industrial Designers Association Award, The Queens Award for Enterprise, Americas Greenspec Award and the Industrial Design Prize of America. (WEBSITE) Pioneering the ball technology in vacuum industry, Dyson had to face imitators, complex legal procedures and huge costs on the road to success but eventually that paid off. (BBC) Another controversy that Dy son faced was relocation of its production to Malaysia and Singapore in 2002 and thus laying off employees in United Kingdom. However, it is held by the company that the cost saving was utilized in research and did not go in vain. Today Dyson products are sold in 45 countries of Europe, Middle East, Australia and United States. With 2008 sales revenue of  £184m, and operating profit of  £90 million which further reached record high of  £190 million in 2009, Dyson Ltd. is undoubtedly a winning company so far in United Kingdom. With 350 engineers and scientists placed in Wiltshire research and development laboratory, the company embarks on an ambitious plan of never ending innovation in household appliances. Culture Dysons remarkable success can be attributed to the corporate culture that flows directly from the founders personality: problem solving through creativity and innovation, research orientation, no complacence when it comes to product features and quality and an unremitting spirit of evolution and revolution. Dysons ability to combine aesthetics with technology is reflected in his successful endeavors like Wrong Garden that was not green and water flowing uphill, displayed in Chelsea Flower Show in 2003. The consistency in personality and the open culture embedded in the very fabric of organization where mistakes are not punished, rather valued because of a potential to be turned into success have made James Dyson a visionary and highly respected entrepreneur in business community worldwide. Company Analysis: 7 Ps: Products: Dyson Ltd. today offers a wide range of appliances: vacuum cleaners that are all about innovation, hand dryers that are quick, energy efficient and certified hygienic by NSF International, and the technologically miraculous, safe and easy to clean fan without blades and grills that does not produce unpleasant sounds. Below we map out the marketing mix of Dyson for vacuum cleaners. Core product: vacuum cleaner Actual product: A comprehensive and interesting list of features added to the core product makes Dyson vacuum cleaners stand out in the industry. Use of Root cyclone and ball technology for high maneuverability leads to high performance on all floor types, certified Asthma friendly by British Allergy Foundation makes the vacuum cleaner usable by Asthma and allergy patients, lifetime HEPA filter and bag less technology means no extra costs over the life of machine. Further product enrichment is made through special accessories to be attached with vacuum cleaners including allergy kit, groom tool, mattress tool, up top tool, stubborn dirt brush etc. Augmented product: Dyson vacuum cleaners not only provide value addition in terms of exciting features, but also provide customer with 5 years guarantee of parts and labor on upright and cylinder vacuum cleaners and 2 years guarantee on handheld vacuum cleaners. Customer service is available 7 days a week, where as full range of spares and accessories for vacuums comes with 12 months guarantee. An online expert service is a new feature that helps customers discusses their issues with Dyson experts with a few clicks. Moreover, the interesting and highly practical positioning of customer care number on the machine rather than on user manuals corroborates companys high customer orientation. Price: Pricing strategy of Dyson vacuum cleaners can be categorized as product line pricing because different machines in the extensive product with unique features are priced differently. Generally, Dyson vacuum cleaners are highly priced in the range of  £ 99  £ 340. Placement: Dyson machines can be shopped online from online merchants sites like Amazon and ebay, its own transaction site, specialty electrical retailers and supermarkets (Add data) Promotion: Besides having the maximum Advertisement budget in the vacuum cleaner industry and using the traditional medium of Television as a medium (in 2009, 92 percent of ad spend was on TV) (Mintel), Dyson uses following promotional techniques to attract customers Discount deals, online coupon codes, free shipping offers, some are particularly for first-time users. http://www.goodsavers.com/stores/dyson_uk_vouchers.cfm Christmas coupons Trade and sales promotion Promotion through collaboration with ISSSEY MIYAKE, in which set for the ISSEY MIYAKE fashion show was designed by James and the collection of ISSEY MIYAKE had a vacuum tinge a wand handle became a sleeve, a cyclone assembly became a skirt. Later, a special handheld vacuum was developed to celebrate the collaboration. People: At Dyson, hiring of creative staff with a passion towards engineering and problem solving serves as the basis of a team that is all about customer orientation. The customer care team is placed near the development arena, and all machines are lined up so that when customers call to interact with Dyson employees about the problems they are facing, the staff understands what they say. Mostly this approach works but if needed, Dyson engineers do not hesitate to visit the customer to fix their machines. SHOWs Processes: At DYSON, all activities are perfectly aligned to live up to the Dyson formula. From Drawing of machine design, to rigorous testing and dropping at premises, to testing by employees at home, competitions of employees to give them a chance to invent, all have the same spirit of problem solving through continuous innovation and perfection. Strategy and not just operational effectiveness A company can outperform rivals if it can establish a difference it can preserve. The difference between operational effectiveness and strategy can best be seen in the case of Dyson. Since its birth, the company has successfully managed to innovate relentlessly in an industry which was previously characterized with discounting. (_____) Dyson perfectly fits in the definition of strategy doing activities differently than competitors. (_____) As for generic strategy framework, Dyson follows the strategy of Product Differentiation. Origin of strategic position can be categorized as needs based as Dyson vacuum cleaners are for a large group of customers with different needs and Dyson handles them all well by introducing add-ons to the core product. BCG Matrix BCG Matrix gives a two-dimensional view of different products in portfolio and what strategies can be implemented to maximize profitability and liquidity. Dysons high share in upright and cylinder vacuum cleaners but low growth in these products in the recent years shows they are cash cows. Whereas low share in handheld and high growth means handheld vacuum cleaners are question marks for Dyson Ltd. increasing market share in handheld through innovation and exciting features will transform it into a Star product. Dysons Flexibility and Focus Dysons strategy comes under perennial renaissance as Dyson focus on consistent, enduring and constant change with creativity and new ideas. ANS-OFF Matrix The ANS-OFF Matrix suggests that Dyson has decided its product strategy and market growth through: Market development by entering into new markets (45 countries and are still expanding) with existing products. Product development by introducing new features to the existing products into existing markets. Industry Analysis: Porter 5 Forces Analysis: Bargaining power of buyers: It will be low as Dysons innovative technology provides something that none of the competitor provides so the customers would not be having any product to compare the Dyson products with. This will result in the low bargaining power of buyers. Bargaining power of suppliers: Suppliers have low bargaining power as Dyson is the industry leader and is selling the maximum number of units so they have all rights to impose power on its suppliers. Rivalry of competitors: Rivalry of competitors is not severe as the closest competitor in cylinder and upright vacuum cleaners is Vax, which is far behind Dyson. Operating system focus: Dyson has ranked the operating system focus in the following manner: